Updated XRP Price Assessment with U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve Inclusion
The inclusion of XRP into the U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve is a game-changer that introduces a new level of demand, utility, and geopolitical significance to XRP. Let’s reassess the previous calculations by incorporating national-level adoption, government holdings, and global reserve utility.
If you would like additional context to my thought process here, feel free to reference my previous article here, where I discuss Ripple’s Partnerships & Progress.
Key New Factors to Consider
- U.S. Government Holdings & Supply Lock-Up
- The U.S. government will likely acquire and hold large amounts of XRP as part of the reserve.
- This reduces available circulating supply and increases scarcity.
- XRP as a Strategic Settlement Asset for International Trade
- Being part of the Strategic Crypto Reserve, XRP could be used for international trade settlements, debt payments, and global liquidity stabilization.
- If other governments follow the U.S. lead, XRP’s demand will increase exponentially.
- Institutional & Central Bank FOMO
- Once the U.S. validates XRP as a strategic asset, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and institutions will start stockpiling XRP, further reducing circulating supply.
1. Adjusting XRP Supply & Scarcity Calculations
Previous circulating supply estimates:
| Year | XRP Circulating Supply | XRP Burned | XRP Remaining |
| 2024 | 57B XRP | ~3.65M XRP | ~57B XRP |
| 2025 | 60B XRP | ~10M XRP | ~59.99B XRP |
| 2027 | 63B XRP | ~100M XRP | ~62.9B XRP |
| 2030 | 66B XRP | 500M – 1B XRP burned | 65B or lower |
New Adjustments Based on U.S. Strategic Reserve Holdings
- The U.S. government could purchase & lock up 5B – 10B XRP in its reserves.
- If other nations join, an additional 10B – 20B XRP could be acquired globally.
- This effectively removes 15B – 30B XRP from circulation, leaving: 65B−30B=35B XRP available in the open market65B – 30B = 35B \text{ XRP available in the open market} By 2030, total circulating supply could be under 40B XRP due to burns and government holdings.
2. Adjusting XRP Price Based on Market Capitalization Growth
| Market Cap | Circulating Supply | XRP Price Calculation |
| $5T Market Cap (2025 Estimate) | 40B XRP | $125 per XRP |
| $10T Market Cap (2030 Estimate) | 35B XRP | $285 per XRP |
| $20T Market Cap (Bull Case 2030) | 30B XRP | $666 per XRP |
3. XRP Price Reassessment Using Ethereum’s Growth Model
Previously, if XRP followed Ethereum’s 692x price increase (from $2.60), we calculated:
$2.60×692=$1,799.202.60 \times 692 = $1,799.20
✅ $1,800 per XRP if XRP mirrors Ethereum’s trajectory.
Adjusting for XRP’s New Strategic Status
- Government backing reduces risk, attracts institutional buyers, and improves XRP’s regulatory standing.
- Ethereum had no government support and still reached nearly $5,000 per ETH.
- If XRP surpasses Ethereum’s adoption speed due to U.S. reserve backing, a 1,000x increase from $2.60 is possible. 2.60×1000=2,6002.60 \times 1000 = 2,600
✅ Updated Price Estimate: $2,600 per XRP (2025-2030 window, considering government demand and institutional holdings).
4. Adjusting XRP Price Based on Supply Scarcity + Institutional Demand
Since the U.S. government, banks, and other nations will stockpile XRP, let’s recalculate prices based on institutional FOMO and declining supply.
Scenario A: Institutional Adoption Model (Adjusted for Government Holdings)
- 2025: XRP market cap = $5T 5T40B=125perXRP\frac{5T}{40B} = \textbf{$125 per XRP$}
- 2030: XRP market cap = $10T+ 10T35B=285perXRP\frac{10T}{35B} = \textbf{$285 per XRP$}
- Bull case: If $50T+ in global settlements use XRP, market cap could exceed $20T 20T30B=666perXRP\frac{20T}{30B} = \textbf{$666 per XRP$}
✅ 2025 Price Target: $125 – $500 per XRP
✅ 2030 Price Target: $500 – $2,600+ per XRP
5. Final Updated XRP Price Predictions After Strategic Reserve Inclusion
| Scenario | 2025 Price Estimate | 2030 Price Estimate (With U.S. Reserve Impact) |
| Institutional Adoption Model | $125 – $500 | $285 – $666 |
| Ethereum Growth Model (692x from $2.60) | $1,800+ | $2,600+ |
| Hybrid Model (Institutional Adoption + RLUSD Burn Factor + U.S. Reserve Impact) | $500 – $2,000 | $2,600 – $10,000+ |
Thinking Crypto talks about the inclusion of Ripple’s XRP Token in the U.S. Strategic Reserve
Final Takeaways (Which are completely speculative)
- The U.S. including XRP in its Strategic Crypto Reserve is an unprecedented level of legitimacy.
- Global governments & institutions will follow suit, increasing demand while reducing circulating supply.
- XRP’s price will now be driven by reserve demand, financial settlements, and scarcity—similar to how gold became a global reserve asset.
- New 2030 Bull Case: If XRP becomes the dominant digital reserve currency, surpassing Ethereum’s trajectory, prices could exceed $10,000.
This is not financial advice, as this is all purely my speculation that I have utilized additional resources, compiled data and shared to the public in order to provide users with as much knowledge of varied opinions, so people can/do their own DDQs (Due Diligence Questions).
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this post is for general informational purposes only and is not intended as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. I make no representations, warranties, or assurances as to the accuracy, currency, or completeness of the content contained herein. Any reliance you place on such information is strictly at your own risk.
Before making any financial or investment decisions, I strongly advise you to consult with a qualified financial advisor, accountant, or other professional who can provide personalized advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. The views and opinions expressed in this post are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or entity with which the author may be affiliated.
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